Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1f5e…9e30 world 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$150 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$114
other 35% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 67% +6.2%
≤30d 3 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 67% +6.2%
≤90d 3 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 67% +6.2%
all 3 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 67% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 67% +6.2%
10% -4.0% 33% -4.0%
15% -13.3% 0% -13.2%
20% -21.8% 0% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage18d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $165 $227 +$62 (+37%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $251 $49 −$202 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $99 +$10 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $100 +$29 +30%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.89 · official $275.89 (match) · 11 history records