Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f5d…80a3 sports 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,192 (-1%) realized −$985 · open −$1,207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%67W / 36L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,922per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,727est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,055
crypto 1% −$1,527
other 1% −$1,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 65% -11.1%
≤30d 103 -6.3% -15.3% 65% 64% -11.1%
≤90d 103 -6.3% -15.3% 65% 64% -11.1%
all 103 -6.3% -15.3% 65% 64% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 64% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 51% -19.6%
15% -30.8% 35% -27.4%
20% -37.6% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,321) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$1,499 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,693
Realized−$985
Unrealized−$1,207
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses67 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,727
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,922
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 51¢ 50¢ $1,900 $1,881 −$19 (-1%)
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Calvin Hemery 65¢ 26¢ $2,000 $812 −$1,188 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $4,022 +$807 +20%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $3,615 +$567 +16%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,215 −$1,215 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $1,517 −$1,517 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $2,012 −$2,012 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 15 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 15 $2,316 −$2,316 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,633 −$1,594 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $1,307 +$277 +21%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1,004 +$359 +36%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4,023 −$4,000 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $2,022 +$1,164 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,024 +$3,976 +388%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $3,614 +$524 +14%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2,917 +$670 +23%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $4,518 +$671 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $3,028 +$1,320 +44%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $892 −$884 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2,977 +$1,254 +42%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,614 +$671 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,525 +$1,073 +30%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $2,521 +$965 +38%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $1,419 +$1,173 +83%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $2,632 −$2,632 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $3,012 +$401 +13%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $475 −$475 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $811 −$800 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1,818 +$841 +46%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $2,313 +$494 +21%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $2,519 +$831 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1,727 +$1,900 +110%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 13 $1,512 +$545 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2,618 +$774 +30%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1,918 +$836 +44%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,914 −$1,914 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2,018 +$823 +41%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2,011 +$458 +23%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $2,017 +$800 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1,465 +$732 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2,008 +$732 +36%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1,515 −$1,515 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 12 $2,219 −$2,219 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,518 +$941 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 51¢ $1,928 15m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 65¢ $2,021 52m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 99¢ $4,829 56m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 82¢ $4,022 1h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 100¢ $4,182 1h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 86¢ $3,615 1h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 53¢ $1,014 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $1,633 3h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Luisina Giovannini 100¢ $1,584 3h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 82¢ $1,307 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $1,363 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $1,004 5h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 81¢ $4,023 5h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $2,020 5h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 58¢ $1,215 5h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 61¢ $1,416 7h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 62¢ $1,517 9h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 63¢ $2,022 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1,024 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,624 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,527 22h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 87¢ $3,614 24h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 99¢ $3,588 24h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 80¢ $2,917 25h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 70¢ $2,320 26h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $5,189 26h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 87¢ $4,518 27h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 70¢ $892 28h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 69¢ $3,028 29h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $4,231 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,693.01 · official $2,693.01 (match) · 208 history records