Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f56…ab1f crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%96W / 23L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$37
tech 20% $0
other 14% −$49
politics 8% $0
world 5% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 119 -0.6% -10.1% 81% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$530) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses96 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage183d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $537 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $536 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $535 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $534 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $533 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $531 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $530 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $529 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $534 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $528 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $528 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $527 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $527 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $526 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $526 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $525 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $524 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $523 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $523 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $467 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $448 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $522 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $522 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $521 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $519 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $519 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $517 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $516 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $515 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $511 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $509 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $509 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $505 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $505 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $537 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $536 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $536 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $535 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $535 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $534 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $533 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $533 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $531 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $530 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $530 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $529 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $534 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $528 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $528 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $527 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $527 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $526 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $526 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $525 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $525 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $524 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $523 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $523 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $522 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $521 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.04 · official $544.04 (match) · 1095 history records