Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f56…094b crypto 89 markets active 6d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%51W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$9
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -19.7% -27.4% 52% 52% -32.4%
≤30d 89 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 55% -13.5%
≤90d 89 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 55% -13.5%
all 89 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 55% -13.5%
10% -20.1% 53% -21.8%
15% -27.8% 47% -29.3%
20% -34.9% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses51 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records