Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f56…94b1
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage310d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 +$3 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $53 $0 +0%
India x Pakistan military clash by Friday? Aug 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Aug 08 $1 $0 -24%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $8 $0 +1%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $47 +$1 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 07 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$4
politics 27% +$1
other 16% +$1
economics 11% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $41 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $38 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $11 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $26 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $11 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $22 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $23 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $10 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $34 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 27% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 27% 0% -8.6%
all 33 -0.0% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.58 · official $34.58 (match) · 132 history records