Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f54…79d2 sports 622 markets active 14h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,223 (-31%) realized −$1,199 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%230W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$42
14 days−$97
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$960
other 15% −$247
politics 1% −$31
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +73.7% +57.2% 56% 56% +33.9%
≤30d 267 -33.8% -40.1% 28% 27% -38.2%
≤90d 531 -24.3% -31.5% 35% 34% -40.0%
all 620 -21.1% -28.6% 37% 35% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 35% -37.3%
10% -35.5% 34% -43.3%
15% -41.7% 33% -48.7%
20% -47.4% 30% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,199
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses230 / 390
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)620 / 622
History coverage172d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ $25 $2 −$24 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 +$3 +282%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 +$12 +197%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$6 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$8 +144%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 +$2 +96%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$3 +47%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -15%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $1 +$3 +250%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $5 +$3 +48%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +225%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$2 +172%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 +$2 +78%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $9 +$5 +60%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 13h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 36¢ $4 17h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym $1 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 53¢ $5 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 50¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 40¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 20¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $9 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $2 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $3 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 12¢ $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 76¢ $0 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 76¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 1424 history records