Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f53…06b3 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$169 (-27%) realized −$177 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$169
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$167
culture 2% +$9
other 2% +$7
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 33% -26.8%
≤30d 30 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 33% -37.2%
≤90d 30 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 33% -37.2%
all 30 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 33% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 33% -37.2%
10% -46.5% 33% -43.2%
15% -51.7% 33% -48.7%
20% -56.4% 33% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 42¢ 64¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 37¢ 55¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama Jun 06 $21 +$20 +95%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 06 $12 +$9 +76%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $69 −$68 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nick Hardt Jun 06 $15 +$13 +88%
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $60 +$37 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $41 +$50 +124%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $10 +$7 +70%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 04 $20 −$5 -24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 +$10 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 42¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 37¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $10 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 20h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $10 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $10 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $10 20h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $5 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $20 21h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 20¢ $5 22h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $5 22h
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama SELL Youssef Kadiri Hassani 100¢ $41 9d
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama BUY Youssef Kadiri Hassani 50¢ $21 9d
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song SELL No 83¢ $21 9d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $69 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 36¢ $10 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $20 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $18 9d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $51 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $29 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 50¢ $10 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 65¢ $10 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 55¢ $5 9d
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 51¢ $10 9d
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song BUY No 45¢ $12 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $60 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $20 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 50¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.36 · official $48.36 (match) · 50 history records