Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f50…1cc1 weather 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate49%111W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% +$1
politics 18% −$6
other 16% −$25
sports 11% −$4
crypto 10% −$3
economics 4% +$2
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 1% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 67 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 170 -4.7% -13.8% 41% 0% -10.5%
all 227 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 1% -10.4%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses111 / 116
Open positions3
Markets (closed)227 / 230
History coverage554d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 28? Jun 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 Jun 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? Jun 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on June 3? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 3? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Estêvão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Calvert-Lewin be included in England's official 2026 Worl Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 0m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $14 9h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 100¢ $13 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 SELL No 100¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $9 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $12 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 SELL No 100¢ $14 42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.87 · official $52.87 (match) · 521 history records