Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1F 0x1f49…9ca3 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%45W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$6
crypto 12% +$1
politics 2% $0
other 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 58 +0.1% -9.5% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses45 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage536d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 03 $58 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $5,797 −$6 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 04 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 93d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 151d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 151d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $59 183d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $58 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 242d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $44 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 302d
Will Solana reach $340 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 335d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $35 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 364d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.58 · official $69.58 (match) · 119 history records