Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1f42…7831 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$47 (+15%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$39
crypto 6% +$8
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 40% +3.7%
≤30d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 40% +3.7%
≤90d 10 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 40% +3.7%
all 10 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 40% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 40% +3.7%
10% -1.8% 30% -6.2%
15% -11.2% 20% -15.2%
20% -19.9% 20% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.67 per $1 lost it wins $4.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$3 +6%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$10 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $91 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 69¢ $53 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 16h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $61 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $120 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $91 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $97 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records