Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f42…9611 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$2,329 (-60%) realized −$2,379 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,368
other 1% −$26
world 0% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +324.6% +284.1% 33% 33% +25.7%
≤30d 3 +324.6% +284.1% 33% 33% +25.7%
≤90d 3 +324.6% +284.1% 33% 33% +25.7%
all 11 +32.0% +19.4% 18% 18% -66.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 18% -66.0%
10% +8.0% 18% -69.2%
15% -2.4% 18% -72.2%
20% -12.0% 18% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$320 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$2,379
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage176d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 54¢ 79¢ $108 $158 +$50 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $105 −$6 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $58 −$18 -32%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 23 $9 +$91 +1011%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 15 $1,190 −$1,090 -92%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 10 $344 −$344 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 10 $355 −$355 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $390 −$390 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 10 $560 +$440 +79%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Dec 29 $255 −$255 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $50 7m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $49 53m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $45 55m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 55m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $0 55m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 55m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 70¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 70¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $48 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $70 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $49 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $58 1h
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 79d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $80 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $3 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $5 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $1 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $5 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 10¢ $6 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 31¢ $310 159d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 44¢ $880 159d
Mavericks vs. Bulls BUY Mavericks 43¢ $48 164d
Mavericks vs. Bulls BUY Mavericks 43¢ $215 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.99 · official $157.99 (match) · 69 history records