Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f42…a8fe sports 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78,241 (-18%) realized −$78,238 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%160W / 107L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,614per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1,295est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$95,629
sports 28% +$13,794
politics 0% +$79
tech 0% −$100
crypto 0% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -11.1% -19.6% 57% 57% -13.0%
≤90d 267 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 57% -26.5%
all 267 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 57% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 57% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 46% -33.5%
15% -30.8% 29% -39.9%
20% -37.5% 19% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$509 vs −$1,523 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$78,238
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses160 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,295
Open positions3
Markets (closed)267 / 270
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,614
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $192 −$192 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $182 +$103 +57%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $152 −$150 -99%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 24 $26 +$4 +16%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $68 −$23 -34%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$53 +53%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $120 +$60 +50%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $19 +$11 +56%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $11 +$3 +29%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $95 +$33 +35%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $88 +$8 +10%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $65 +$18 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $53 −$48 -90%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $18 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $2 +$4 +152%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $28 −$10 -38%
Will Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 17 $1,919 −$1,900 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,508 −$3,571 -65%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,195 +$2,380 +74%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $1,766 −$1,306 -74%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 17 $2,178 −$339 -16%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 17 $1,395 −$548 -39%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 0.5 May 17 $3,126 −$3,051 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $689 −$217 -32%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30,404 −$30,210 -99%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $684 −$684 -100%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 17 $624 +$648 +104%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $915 +$1,083 +118%
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5 May 17 $3,650 +$1,345 +37%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5 May 17 $7,205 +$2,998 +42%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $338 −$324 -96%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6,059 −$5,570 -92%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11,976 +$4,939 +41%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 May 17 $2,025 −$974 -48%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1,014 −$993 -98%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $259 +$191 +74%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $577 +$120 +21%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $67 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 1h
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $192 15d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 15d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 15d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 63¢ $182 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 20d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes $2 25d
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 25d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $45 26d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 26d
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $26 26d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $68 26d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 26d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $45 26d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 26d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 26d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 26d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 26d
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $180 26d
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $120 26d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 27d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 27d
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $129 27d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 27d
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $17 27d
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 27d
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $16 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.60 · official $72.60 (match) · 1227 history records