Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1F 0x1f40…1efb other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,051 (-1%) realized −$1,051 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%32W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,384per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$44
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$95
other 40% −$1,861
sports 9% +$875
culture 3% −$6
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +3.5% -6.4% 18% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 12% 5% -10.6%
all 138 +2.4% -7.3% 23% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 14% -10.0%
10% -16.2% 14% -18.6%
15% -24.3% 13% -26.5%
20% -31.7% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,841) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$27 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized−$1,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,384
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $860 $860 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4,222 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $6,021 −$7 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,879 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,020 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,799 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,439 −$4 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,632 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $811 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $188 +$3 +2%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,720 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $812 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,657 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,963 −$4 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $828 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $885 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $52 +$67 +129%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $809 −$1 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $46 +$65 +140%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $709 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $51 +$24 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $38 +$16 +44%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $1,437 −$1,437 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,382 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $4,044 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $2,358 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,076 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $3,070 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $860 54m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $886 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $888 3h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 5h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $558 7h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $870 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $872 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $870 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $510 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $511 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $800 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $801 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $920 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $921 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,006 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,009 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $810 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $811 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $698 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $699 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $811 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.66 · official $859.66 (match) · 475 history records