Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f3f…959b other 897 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,935 (-3%) realized −$2,985 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%301W / 590L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$302
14 days+$532
30 days+$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$3,348
sports 24% −$816
world 1% +$1,548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +137.3% +114.7% 50% 50% +29.1%
≤30d 86 +26.0% +14.0% 36% 36% +2.4%
≤90d 217 +5.0% -5.0% 32% 32% -16.8%
all 891 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 34% -11.4%
10% -17.8% 34% -19.8%
15% -25.7% 34% -27.6%
20% -33.0% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$121 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$2,985
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses301 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)891 / 897
History coverage243d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 41¢ 73¢ $64 $113 +$50 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$116 +227%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$113 +262%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$43 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$75 +152%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $99 −$96 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $1 +$10 +1007%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$193 +378%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $35 +$178 +510%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $50 −$10 -20%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Thespa Gunma win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $50 −$49 -99%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $24 +$37 +152%
Romania vs. Wales: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $69 +$82 +119%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$184 +180%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Fujieda MYFC vs. Ehime FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $51 +$203 +396%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -97%
Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $115 +$139 +121%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 +$85 +287%
Benin vs. Niger: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 05 $49 +$80 +162%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $49 −$5 -11%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 31 $65 −$64 -98%
FC Imabari vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 May 31 $51 −$50 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $46 +$121 +262%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $12 −$12 -94%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 May 30 $50 +$59 +117%
Spread: IK Sirius (-1.5) May 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? May 30 $49 −$49 -98%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $104 −$102 -98%
Albirex Niigata vs. Kagoshima United FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $49 +$55 +112%
Will AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? May 29 $49 −$48 -98%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $65 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 19h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $50 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $73 25h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 38h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $49 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $49 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $49 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 28¢ $49 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $12 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 96¢ $11 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY $1 4d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $85 4d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 4d
Spread: CD Coquimbo Unido (-1.5) BUY CD Coquimbo Unido 30¢ $102 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 17¢ $14 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 15¢ $21 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $49 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 11d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 11d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 11d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $69 11d
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $119 11d
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $100 11d
Will Thespa Gunma win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.40 · official $113.40 (match) · 1797 history records