Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f3c…2bc2 crypto 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$265 (-12%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%98W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$45
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$216
sports 34% −$67
other 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.4% -22.6% 33% 33% -27.7%
≤30d 32 -27.3% -34.3% 31% 28% -17.4%
≤90d 191 -19.3% -27.0% 46% 37% -24.1%
all 203 -16.3% -24.2% 48% 39% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 39% -21.6%
10% -31.5% 33% -29.1%
15% -38.1% 25% -35.9%
20% -44.2% 20% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses98 / 105
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage165d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $58 −$3 -5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $92 −$25 -27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $6 −$2 -39%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $10 −$8 -78%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $89 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $17 −$2 -12%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $30 −$19 -63%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $43 −$2 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $4 −$1 -33%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $44 −$39 -90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 24 $21 +$22 +103%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $189 +$83 +44%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $21 +$27 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 13 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
First Blood in Game 2? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $4 −$3 -84%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $4 −$3 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 28m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $55 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $58 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 23¢ $4 14d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos SELL GLYPH 39¢ $4 14d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos BUY GLYPH 62¢ $6 14d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs SELL Lavked 10¢ $2 14d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs BUY Lavked 34¢ $10 14d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming $10 14d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming $10 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G SELL INOX Division 99¢ $72 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY INOX Division 75¢ $8 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY INOX Division 80¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY INOX Division 80¢ $30 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G SELL ARCRED 19¢ $16 14d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming $10 14d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY ARCRED 34¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $14 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $66 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records