Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1F 0x1f39…8c3b other 23 markets active 7h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$7
sports 9% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 30% -6.6%
≤30d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 30% -6.6%
≤90d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 30% -6.6%
all 10 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 30% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 30% -6.6%
10% -16.9% 0% -15.5%
15% -24.9% 0% -23.7%
20% -32.3% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)10 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $8 7h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $10 7h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $13 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $4 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $6 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $30 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $12 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $14 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $1 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.80 · official $87.80 (match) · 36 history records