Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f38…c963 crypto 693 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%336W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day115.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 468 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 44% -15.4%
≤30d 693 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -11.7%
≤90d 693 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -11.7%
all 693 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 47% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 47% -20.2%
15% -32.0% 47% -27.9%
20% -38.7% 46% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses336 / 357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 693
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day115.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1035 history records