Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f36…2819 crypto 369 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,390 (-2%) realized −$3,364 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%164W / 200L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$3,479est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$6,436
other 13% +$1,181
crypto 7% +$245
world 1% −$123
finance 1% −$1,020
economics 0% −$213
tech 0% −$199
culture 0% −$100
weather 0% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +56.5% +41.6% 58% 58% +17.4%
≤30d 15 +31.5% +18.9% 47% 47% -37.8%
≤90d 231 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 34% -12.9%
all 364 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 41% -12.4%
10% -21.9% 40% -20.7%
15% -29.5% 36% -28.4%
20% -36.4% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$396 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$3,364
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses164 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3,479
Open positions1
Markets (closed)364 / 369
History coverage120d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $450 $424 −$26 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $85 +$39 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 22 $204 −$20 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$53 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $26 +$106 +414%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$50 +99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$44 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -11%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $1,389 −$1,371 -99%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $10,924 −$917 -8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $3,051 −$2,984 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $508 +$549 +108%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 May 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,523 +$794 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $507 +$402 +79%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $205 −$5 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,527 +$2,128 +139%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $2,028 +$692 +34%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 19 $1,658 −$61 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $1,015 +$903 +89%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 18 $710 −$34 -5%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $2,893 −$143 -5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $913 −$52 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $50 +$59 +118%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 16 $304 −$303 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 16 $2,028 −$1,943 -96%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 14 $507 +$386 +76%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $305 +$178 +58%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 May 14 $510 −$192 -38%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 14 $542 +$486 +90%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 14 $1,218 +$1,133 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $203 +$201 +99%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 14 $508 −$34 -7%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 13 $305 +$347 +114%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 181.5 May 13 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 −$122 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $153 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Alge BUY 13¢ $103 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Fra BUY $103 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 26¢ $185 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 12¢ $103 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $204 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $85 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $134 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 19¢ $26 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $47 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Col BUY 10¢ $21 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Col BUY 10¢ $31 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $51 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 62¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL 31¢ $45 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY 33¢ $51 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $51 5d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 54¢ $368 28d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $297 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder $68 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.84 · official $523.84 · 847 history records