Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f35…fcdb weather 927 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$171 (+0%) realized +$170 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate66%606W / 318L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$459
14 days+$775
30 days+$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$1,159
crypto 18% −$1,032
other 0% −$15
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -7.8%
≤30d 236 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -7.7%
≤90d 623 -9.3% -17.9% 64% 15% -7.9%
all 924 -8.2% -16.9% 66% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 15% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 11% -18.1%
15% -32.1% 9% -26.0%
20% -38.8% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses606 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)924 / 927
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 924 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $307 $307 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $199 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $151 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $379 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,310 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $334 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $183 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $360 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $136 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $147 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $730 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $405 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,237 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $414 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $624 +$21 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $555 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $236 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $176 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $599 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $926 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $206 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $533 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $381 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $622 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $181 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $362 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $537 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $377 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $319 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $365 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $163 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $254 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $402 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $77 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $84 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $350 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $155 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $307 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $155 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 79¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $59 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $54 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $23 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $176 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.68 · official $457.68 (match) · 3500 history records