Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f32…efb8 crypto 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (686 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$397 (+5%) realized +$408 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%93W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day686.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$252
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (686 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 280 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 28% -5.6%
≤30d 280 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 28% -5.6%
≤90d 280 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 28% -5.6%
all 280 +4.3% -5.6% 33% 28% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover686.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 28% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 24% -14.6%
15% -22.9% 20% -22.9%
20% -30.5% 15% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses93 / 187
Open positions123
Markets (closed)280 / 403
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day686.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 123 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $28 $51 +$23 (+82%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $41 $35 −$6 (-15%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? No 6¢ 9¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 2? No 7¢ 8¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+13%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 1? No 3¢ 2¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? No 2¢ 5¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+137%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? No 2¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30? No 5¢ 5¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+105%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $173 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $17 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 26 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $24 +$12 +52%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$6 +148%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 26 $203 +$23 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 30? Jun 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $65 −$22 -35%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $205 +$16 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $71 +$68 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 26 $86 −$5 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$53 +90%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 26 $82 −$15 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $58 −$15 -25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $8 +$4 +49%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? Jun 26 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $33 −$17 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $58 +$28 +47%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$9 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $16 −$15 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $33 −$26 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 1? Jun 26 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 26 $36 −$5 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on July 1? Jun 26 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $9 −$2 -19%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 26 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? Jun 26 $15 +$51 +340%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 26 $36 +$25 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $26 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $75 on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 2? BUY No 7¢ $21 9m
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 9m
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 13m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 15m
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20m
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 25m
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 28? BUY No 2¢ $0 28m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? SELL No 0¢ $1 30m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 34m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 34m
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 35m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39m
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 46m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.95 · official $548.37 · 3500 history records