Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f32…b5ff crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$20
other 5% +$1
sports 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.3% +8.0% 57% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 14 +19.3% +8.0% 57% 36% -11.0%
≤90d 14 +19.3% +8.0% 57% 36% -11.0%
all 14 +19.3% +8.0% 57% 36% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 36% -11.0%
10% -2.4% 29% -19.6%
15% -11.8% 29% -27.3%
20% -20.4% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$8 -14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$7 +133%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$25 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 11m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 65¢ $12 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records