Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1F 0x1f30…2a54 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$141 (+11%) realized +$127 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$295
14 days+$295
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$186
other 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +169.9% +144.2% 100% 100% +156.4%
≤30d 2 +169.9% +144.2% 100% 100% +156.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 38% +29.6%
all 25 +4.1% -5.8% 28% 24% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 24% +2.6%
10% -14.8% 24% -7.2%
15% -23.1% 24% -16.1%
20% -30.6% 24% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$20 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage152d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Under 52¢ 58¢ $128 $144 +$16 (+13%)
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Burruchaga (+2.5) Minaur 66¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Wu vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 28¢ 27¢ $34 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Second half draw? Jun 28 $61 +$69 +113%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $100 +$225 +226%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 05 $16 +$15 +93%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Seri Apr 29 $50 −$16 -31%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie Mar 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Du Mar 08 $162 −$50 -31%
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 07 $59 +$109 +186%
LoL: The Otter Side vs Crusaders - Game 4 Winner Mar 06 $81 −$22 -28%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Feb 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Feb 22 $101 +$9 +9%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Feb 09 $35 −$3 -7%
LoL: SPIKE Syndicate vs Lupus Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $14 +$68 +488%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Feb 05 $38 −$2 -6%
Transylvania Open: Camila Osorio vs Jaqueline Cristian Feb 02 $20 $0 -2%
Badosa vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 02 $36 −$1 -4%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Fingers Crossed (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Jan 29 $1 +$1 +130%
LoL: One More Esports vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stag Jan 29 $28 −$28 -100%
International T20 Series: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 1) Jan 27 $26 −$24 -94%
LoL: HOWL Esports vs Team Insidious (BO2) - HLL Regular Season Jan 27 $7 −$3 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $130 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Second half draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: Second half draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 26h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Burruchaga (+2.5) BUY Minaur 66¢ $40 29h
Wu vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 28¢ $34 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $100 44h
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $10 40d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $10 40d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $10 40d
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl BUY Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming 41¢ $13 40d
Paris: Alina Korneeva vs Katie Volynets BUY Alina Korneeva 44¢ $51 48d
Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $16 58d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 48¢ $42 60d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Seri BUY Isurus 72¢ $50 61d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie BUY Phantom 40¢ $21 110d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Du SELL Los Angeles Thieves 22¢ $112 112d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Du BUY Los Angeles Thieves 32¢ $162 112d
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 35¢ $59 114d
LoL: The Otter Side vs Crusaders - Game 4 Winner BUY The Otter Side 69¢ $81 117d
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $25 124d
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 126d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Galatasaray SK 92¢ $101 132d
LoL: SPIKE Syndicate vs Lupus Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL SPIKE Syndicate 100¢ $82 142d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $35 143d
LoL: SPIKE Syndicate vs Lupus Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY SPIKE Syndicate 17¢ $14 143d
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season SELL Ruddy Esports 30¢ $36 143d
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season BUY Ruddy Esports 32¢ $38 144d
Transylvania Open: Camila Osorio vs Jaqueline Cristian SELL Cristian 50¢ $20 146d
Badosa vs. Maneiro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.22 · official $202.65 · 52 history records