Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f2e…f41d other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 211L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 23% −$19
politics 7% −$5
crypto 6% +$15
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 1% -9.6%
all 227 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage128d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $490 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $384 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $399 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $353 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $397 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $378 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 12h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 14h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $65 17h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $65 18h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 32h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 33h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 35h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 37h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 38h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 40h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 47h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1273 history records