Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f2c…dcbb crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 782d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,099 (+3%) realized +$12,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%144W / 35L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$2,124per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$7,442
other 23% +$4,500
sports 6% −$49
politics 4% +$209
culture 1% +$13
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.6% -4.5% 100% 29% -3.9%
≤30d 8 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 25% -4.2%
≤90d 27 -16.0% -24.0% 74% 19% -46.7%
all 179 -7.7% -16.5% 80% 11% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 11% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 2% -15.6%
15% -31.8% 1% -23.7%
20% -38.5% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$103 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.55 per $1 lost it wins $4.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

782d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses144 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage782d
Avg bet$2,124
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $81 +$10 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $33 +$4 +11%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $43 +$2 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $19 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $13 +$1 +6%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $14 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $27 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $28 −$19 -69%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $24 +$4 +16%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $46 +$4 +8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $500 −$452 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 01 $19 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 31 $18 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $17 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 19 $49 −$19 -39%
Oilers vs. Kings Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 +3%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 18 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 11 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 11 $105 +$3 +3%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 09 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 09 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 06 $101 +$7 +7%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 06 $41 +$1 +2%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $803 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 03 $119 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 03 $108 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 03 $161 −$54 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 03 $152 +$12 +8%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 29m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 29m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 31m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $47 36m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $24 37m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 37m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 37m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $28 38m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $46 45m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $3 55m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $41 55m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $44 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $37 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $33 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $17 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $15 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $30 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 90¢ $45 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $13 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $22 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $8 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 95¢ $44 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 94¢ $6 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 94¢ $37 36h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 29d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 94¢ $13 40d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $14 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1338 history records