trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | $16 | $17 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? | Jun 08 | $10 | +$8 | +75% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $10 | +$7 | +66% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $8 | +$3 | +35% |
| France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 | Jun 04 | $3 | +$2 | +53% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $1 | +$1 | +71% |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 14 | $2 | −$1 | -55% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? | May 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? | May 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? | May 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? | May 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? | May 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? | May 08 | $2 | +$1 | +46% |
| Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Conference League final? | May 08 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7? | May 07 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? | May 06 | $5 | +$5 | +93% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6? | May 06 | $1 | +$2 | +126% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? | May 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? | May 04 | $2 | +$3 | +145% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +19.0% | +7.7% | 75% | 75% | +23.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 60% | 50% | +9.5% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -21.2% | -28.7% | 44% | 37% | -11.7% |
| all | 27 | -21.2% | -28.7% | 44% | 37% | -11.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.7% | 37% | -11.7% |
| 10% | -35.5% | 37% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -41.8% | 33% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -47.5% | 30% | -34.9% |