Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1F 0x1f2a…956f other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$25
politics 20% −$6
economics 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
sports 4% +$17
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 115 +2.7% -7.1% 12% 10% -9.6%
all 115 +2.7% -7.1% 12% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 10% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage86d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $392 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $299 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $276 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $284 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $299 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $12 31h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 46h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $189 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.75 · official $188.75 (match) · 303 history records