Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f29…f469 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$1
other 16% +$3
crypto 2% −$7
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -3.7% -12.8% 40% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 7% -10.4%
10% -21.2% 3% -19.0%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage333d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $39 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $35 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $2 $0 +22%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.63 · official $35.78 (match) · 101 history records