Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1F 0x1f25…21a4 sports 90 markets active 9h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$518 (+0%) realized +$519 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,435per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,184
7 days+$492
14 days+$492
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$5,826
sports 32% +$2,205
crypto 16% −$8,383
politics 9% +$952
finance 2% +$24
world 1% −$924
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +29.3% +17.0% 46% 46% -0.5%
≤30d 13 +29.3% +17.0% 46% 46% -0.5%
≤90d 17 +3.9% -6.0% 35% 35% -17.8%
all 84 -14.4% -22.5% 46% 36% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 36% -9.7%
10% -30.0% 30% -18.4%
15% -36.7% 24% -26.3%
20% -42.9% 20% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$854 vs −$746 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,417
Realized+$519
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,435
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $610 $605 −$5 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $280 $292 +$12 (+4%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $215 $210 −$5 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $161 $160 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $137 $134 −$3 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $254 +$79 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $643 +$357 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $248 −$240 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $268 +$732 +273%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $543 −$530 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $176 +$824 +468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $783 −$770 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $673 +$327 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $227 −$220 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,009 −$29 -3%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $100 −$96 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 29 $500 −$375 -75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 29 $1,000 −$434 -43%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $755 −$755 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $472 −$472 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $500 +$353 +71%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $200 +$667 +333%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 07 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 07 $348 −$348 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $2,000 +$1,107 +55%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 05 $1,401 +$490 +35%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 02 $500 +$306 +61%
LoL: SK Gaming vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 02 $1,000 +$1,993 +199%
LoL: Los Ratones vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 01 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 31 $500 +$154 +31%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $1,427 +$2,299 +161%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $2,483 −$1,983 -80%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $2,956 −$38 -1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $1,000 +$153 +15%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $500 +$531 +106%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seas Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $2,000 −$696 -35%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $2,000 +$248 +12%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $3,034 +$1,811 +60%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $2,250 +$802 +36%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 24 $2,250 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $2,103 +$145 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 21? Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $163 9h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $141 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $286 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $222 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $623 9h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 20h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $254 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $248 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $643 20h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $268 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $543 36h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $176 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $783 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $227 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $673 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $980 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,009 3d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $200 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $125 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $566 82d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 4¢ $53 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,000 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 104d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 11¢ $55 118d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 34¢ $700 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,416.54 · official $1,416.54 (match) · 243 history records