Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1F 0x1f23…987a crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% -7.8%
≤30d 5 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% -7.8%
≤90d 5 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% -7.8%
all 5 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 60% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 60% -7.8%
10% -14.9% 20% -16.6%
15% -23.1% 20% -24.7%
20% -30.6% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records