Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f1f…00a7 crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$559 (+2%) realized +$699 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%144W / 153L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$820
7 days−$2,734
14 days−$2,438
30 days−$1,582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$994
sports 35% +$679
other 18% −$1,456
world 7% +$157
politics 3% −$822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -60.3% -64.1% 13% 11% -34.5%
≤30d 287 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 46% -15.3%
≤90d 297 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 45% -10.6%
all 297 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -10.6%
10% -26.6% 40% -19.2%
15% -33.7% 30% -27.0%
20% -40.2% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$67 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$3,029
Realized+$699
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses144 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions8
Markets (closed)297 / 305
History coverage48d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,904 $1,829 −$74 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $400 $379 −$21 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $204 $159 −$45 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $140 $152 +$12 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $111 $105 −$6 (-5%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 46¢ 82¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $476 −$476 -100%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 17 $1,141 −$687 -60%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$223 -54%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $400 +$46 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $235 +$57 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 +$829 +270%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$19 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,500 +$111 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$208 +68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 +$325 +106%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $113 −$88 -78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $357 +$804 +225%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$5 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,924 42m
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 3¢ $454 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $719 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 14h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 34¢ $446 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 23h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 30¢ $400 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $186 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $189 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $199 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,611 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,500 47h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 46¢ $10 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $512 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $95 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $304 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $159 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $157 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $314 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,028.74 · official $3,093.85 · 824 history records