Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f1d…63d9
crypto · 46 markets active 194d ago
0.0score
−$600,729 -96%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$600,729 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$600,729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage162d
Avg bet$13,654
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum above $4500 on September 5? No 73¢ 100¢ $26 $36 +$10 (+37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on July 23? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $420 $0 −$420 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$167 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1,086 $0 −$1,086 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? No 22¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2,408 $0 −$2,408 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 31 at 5PM ET? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2,083 $0 −$2,083 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $344 $0 −$344 (-100%)
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,852 $0 −$2,852 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 19-25? No 1¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1,371 $0 −$1,371 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? No 2¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $4,174 −$2,934 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 30 $877 −$1,371 -156%
Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? Sep 05 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Ethereum above $4500 on September 5? Sep 05 $26 +$10 +37%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1? Sep 03 $2,409 −$2,408 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 19-25? Aug 25 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 31 at 5PM Jul 30 $2,083 −$2,083 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on July 23? Jul 22 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? Jul 18 $404 −$154 -38%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jul 16 $344 −$344 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? Jul 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 08 $167 −$167 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? Jul 08 $4,730 +$2,766 +58%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Jul 06 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 06 $2,311 −$2,311 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 06 $1,606 −$1,606 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Jul 01 $220 −$220 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 28? Jul 01 $276 −$276 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on June 26 at 5PM ET? Jul 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 30? Jul 01 $376 −$376 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2200 and $2300 on June 27? Jul 01 $868 −$868 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27? Jul 01 $344 −$344 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 01 $313 −$313 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 26 at 5P Jul 01 $9,852 −$9,843 -100%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jul 01 $1,776 −$1,776 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 26 at 5P Jul 01 $10,741 −$10,741 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? Jul 01 $209,457 −$209,406 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? Jul 01 $99,198 −$99,164 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on June 27 at 5PM ET? Jul 01 $135,360 −$135,360 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 27 at 5PM ET? Jun 27 $2,500 +$437 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on June 25 at 5PM Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 25 at 5PM ET? Jun 26 $603 −$603 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 25 at 5PM ET? Jun 26 $43,071 −$43,071 -100%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30? Jun 24 $1,643 −$1,208 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98K and $99K on June 23 at 5PM E Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100K on June 23 at 5PM ET? Jun 24 $940 +$962 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98K on June 23 at 5PM ET? Jun 24 $1,929 −$1,929 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 24? Jun 24 $14,092 −$13,620 -97%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $55,274 −$52,264 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $979 −$979 -100%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 23 $3,405 −$1,833 -54%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27? Jun 23 $1,927 −$1,256 -65%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $633 −$345 -54%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22? Jun 23 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 23 $342 +$88 +26%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 22 $9,157 −$2,128 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$585,914
world 3% −$8,828
other 1% −$5,986
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $111 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 193d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-80.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 46 -78.7% -80.7% 11% 11% -96.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.7% 11% -96.2%
10% -82.6% 9% -96.6%
15% ← realistic here -84.3% 7% -96.9%
20% -85.8% 4% -97.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.00 · official $36.00 (match) · 3500 history records