Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1f1c…ebff weather 789 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate73%566W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$41
14 days−$277
30 days−$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$246
politics 1% −$38
other 1% −$130
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% −$49
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +3.7% -6.2% 68% 58% -8.9%
≤30d 289 +3.7% -6.2% 41% 30% -13.1%
≤90d 780 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 12% -10.4%
all 780 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 12% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 7% -18.9%
15% -25.1% 4% -26.8%
20% -32.4% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses566 / 214
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions42
Markets (closed)780 / 789
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 75¢ 94¢ $61 $76 +$15 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 65¢ 83¢ $53 $68 +$15 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $23 $31 +$8 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $180 +$24 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $178 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $234 −$46 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 −$18 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $85 −$47 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 −$10 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 +$81 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$7 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$63 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 +$24 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +60%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $44 −$18 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$7 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $33 +$33 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$32 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 +$22 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$9 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$18 -46%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$31 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $173 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $603 +$33 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$12 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$7 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$15 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 72¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.60 · official $240.14 (match) · 3500 history records