Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1F 0x1f1c…bf9d other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$4 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$284per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-15.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-6.5%	-15.4%	0%	0%	-15.4%
≤30d	1	-6.5%	-15.4%	0%	0%	-15.4%
≤90d	1	-6.5%	-15.4%	0%	0%	-15.4%
all	1	-6.5%	-15.4%	0%	0%	-15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.4%	0%	-15.4%
10%	-23.5%	0%	-23.5%
15%	-30.9%	0%	-30.9%
20%	-37.7%	0%	-37.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$21 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$485

Realized−$4

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$284

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$260	$259	−$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$250	$225	−$25 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$329	−$21	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$82	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$307	15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$256	22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$329	23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$184	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.52 · official $484.52 (match) · 6 history records