Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f18…251d crypto 1368 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,013 (-55%) realized −$16,013 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%766W / 751L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -53.4% -57.8% 23% 22% -96.5%
≤30d 770 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 41% -87.6%
≤90d 1517 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 49% -59.7%
all 1517 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 49% -59.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 49% -59.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 46% -63.5%
15% -33.7% 40% -67.1%
20% -40.2% 33% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$61 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,013
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses766 / 751
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1517 / 1368
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1517 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9AM ET Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 1AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET Jun 17 $516 −$516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 4AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 12AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7AM ET Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 9PM ET Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 11AM ET Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8AM ET Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 7AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 11PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 11PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 10PM ET Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET Jun 17 $461 −$461 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 9PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 11AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 6AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 9AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$76 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 4AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 5AM ET Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12AM ET Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 11PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 1AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 1AM ET Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records