Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f17…c1db other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$297 (+4%) realized +$315 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%15W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day164.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$347
sports 30% +$692
crypto 7% −$451
world 2% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -17.8% -25.7% 16% 14% -7.7%
≤30d 94 -17.8% -25.7% 16% 14% -7.7%
≤90d 94 -17.8% -25.7% 16% 14% -7.7%
all 94 -17.8% -25.7% 16% 14% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 14% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 14% -16.5%
15% -39.3% 14% -24.6%
20% -45.2% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$46 · ×5.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$315
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 79
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions9
Markets (closed)94 / 103
History coverage3d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day164.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jordan 3¢ 2¢ $63 $49 −$14 (-22%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$2 -10%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $132 +$9 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $94 +$151 +160%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $144 −$112 -78%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $156 +$184 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -97%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 16 $78 −$76 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $110 +$179 +162%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $43 +$177 +411%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$6 -28%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $152 −$112 -74%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 +$207 +502%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 +$60 +196%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 47m
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 48m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 49m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 51m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 56m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.79 · official $212.95 (match) · 534 history records