Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f16…3561 crypto 147 markets active 8d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,465 (-9%) realized −$13,465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%65W / 82L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,021per market
Trades / day461.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15,482
sports 0% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 147 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -19.2%
≤90d 147 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -19.2%
all 147 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover461.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 44% -19.2%
10% -29.6% 43% -26.9%
15% ← realistic here -36.4% 36% -34.0%
20% -42.7% 33% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,250) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$960 vs −$952 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses65 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,021
Trades / day461.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1,200 −$1,160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $1,176 −$1,125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,301 −$1,250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $2,128 +$1,550 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1,050 −$1,000 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $1,562 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $526 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $1,269 −$1,215 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $916 −$875 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $643 −$614 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,276 +$553 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $778 +$853 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $951 +$822 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $1,355 −$592 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $1,350 +$1,799 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $141 −$136 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1,034 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2,052 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,112 −$1,060 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $884 +$583 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,023 +$450 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $519 +$588 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $1,562 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $923 −$875 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $1,102 −$1,079 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $2,048 −$1,976 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $1,748 −$1,675 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 07 $1,387 −$1,334 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,087 −$1,046 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 07 $1,011 +$184 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $929 −$882 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,173 +$838 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,297 +$1,441 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $2,040 +$3,487 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $1,925 −$1,849 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1,148 −$1,099 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $516 +$393 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $1,544 +$1,030 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $1,028 +$656 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $1,554 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $1,027 +$759 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1,563 −$1,514 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $1,522 +$451 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,676 −$1,614 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $167 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $519 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $515 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $131 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $453 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $72 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $520 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $213 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $252 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $272 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $514 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $514 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $510 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $514 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $521 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $84 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $439 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $84 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $444 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $43 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $246 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $240 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $517 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $516 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $262 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $249 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1133 history records