Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1F
0x1f13…3a2d
world · 493 markets active 3h ago
2.5score
−$1,843 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,553 · open +$625
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,495
Realized−$2,553
Unrealized+$625
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses302 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions13
Markets (closed)480 / 493
History coverage574d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 13 History 480 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days+$213
14 days−$3,554
30 days−$6,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $634 $902 +$268 (+42%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 97¢ $297 $394 +$97 (+33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $360 $350 −$10 (-3%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $282 $299 +$17 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 69¢ 73¢ $276 $292 +$16 (+6%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 44¢ 88¢ $115 $230 +$116 (+101%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 82¢ 94¢ $164 $188 +$25 (+15%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 96¢ $142 $179 +$37 (+26%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $158 $175 +$17 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 62¢ 73¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 42¢ 52¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $670 −$195 -29%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $746 +$408 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $38 −$19 -50%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $97 −$96 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $370 −$369 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,767 +$1,084 +39%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $297 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $85 +$18 +22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $350 +$72 +21%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 31 $697 −$499 -72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $5,922 −$4,433 -75%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $490 −$66 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 29 $458 −$35 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $565 −$20 -4%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 29 $305 +$89 +29%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $260 +$72 +28%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 29 $1,100 +$8 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $1,447 +$221 +15%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? May 29 $402 +$91 +22%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 29 $712 +$65 +9%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 29 $130 +$51 +39%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $100 −$75 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $313 +$17 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,336 −$351 -26%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 28 $497 +$52 +10%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $200 −$178 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $300 −$85 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $200 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $3,940 −$1,128 -29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,842 +$124 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 25 $1,500 +$37 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $570 +$64 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,300 −$777 -60%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 23 $753 +$41 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $500 +$53 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $140 −$36 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $364 +$35 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,726 −$342 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,138 +$39 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $541 −$92 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 21 $324 −$42 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 21 $250 +$16 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 21 $611 +$17 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $1,009 −$249 -25%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $85 +$55 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $662 +$19 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $885 +$198 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $880 +$120 +14%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $318 −$318 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$7,920
other 20% −$257
politics 18% +$1,915
crypto 11% +$2,216
sports 7% +$2,239
economics 1% −$312
culture 1% +$163
finance 0% −$70
tech 0% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $102 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 42¢ $51 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $176 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $130 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 73¢ $146 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $125 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $38 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $370 23h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $143 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $222 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 73¢ $77 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 70¢ $80 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 80¢ $585 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 44¢ $19 7d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 66¢ $323 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 73¢ $776 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 0¢ $0 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 73¢ $23 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 73¢ $58 8d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 73¢ $15 8d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 42¢ $86 8d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 41¢ $73 8d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 40¢ $25 8d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 SELL Yes 60¢ $236 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 92¢ $370 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.8% +2.1% 50% 50% +4.1%
≤30d 52 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 29% -23.8%
≤90d 166 +2.5% -7.3% 65% 35% -10.2%
all 480 -2.7% -12.0% 63% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 38% -10.5%
10% -20.4% 25% -19.1%
15% -28.1% 19% -26.9%
20% -35.1% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,495.08 · official $3,495.09 (match) · 2349 history records