Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

1F 0x1f12…e663 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$110 (+25%) realized +$111 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+15.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+27.4%	+15.3%	40%	40%	+17.6%
≤30d	5	+27.4%	+15.3%	40%	40%	+17.6%
≤90d	5	+27.4%	+15.3%	40%	40%	+17.6%
all	5	+27.4%	+15.3%	40%	40%	+17.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.3%	40%	+17.6%
10%	+4.3%	40%	+6.4%
15%	-5.8%	40%	-3.9%
20%	-15.0%	40%	-13.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$158 vs −$70 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized+$111

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Over	26¢	26¢	$78	$76	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$70	+$205	+291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$91	−$89	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$66	−$64	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$57	−$56	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$77	+$112	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$3	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$77	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	25¢	$4	26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	25¢	$66	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	35¢	$91	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$4	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$61	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	26¢	$57	4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$5	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	40¢	$71	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.27 · official $76.27 (match) · 12 history records