Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f11…583c crypto 288 markets active 7d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-11%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%124W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -37.2% -43.2% 38% 38% -42.2%
≤30d 288 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -21.3%
≤90d 288 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -21.3%
all 288 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 43% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 43% -28.9%
15% -37.1% 43% -35.7%
20% -43.3% 34% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses124 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records