Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f11…23c0 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$304 (-26%) realized −$273 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤30d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤90d 10 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 40% -28.4%
all 10 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 40% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 40% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 40% -35.3%
15% -50.7% 20% -41.5%
20% -55.5% 20% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$95 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$273
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 54¢ 38¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$28 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $143 +$174 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $68 −$66 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$89 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $166 +$136 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $166 −$164 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$103 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $143 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $15 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $302 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $166 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $166 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $108 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.13 · official $69.13 (match) · 22 history records