Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1F 0x1f0c…0f32 crypto 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$428 (-5%) realized −$402 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%81W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$398
7 days+$398
14 days−$143
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$225
other 2% −$18
world 0% −$11
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 38% +8.7%
≤30d 91 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 30% -10.4%
≤90d 201 -26.0% -33.0% 40% 32% -12.6%
all 201 -26.0% -33.0% 40% 32% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 32% -12.6%
10% -39.4% 25% -21.0%
15% -45.3% 21% -28.6%
20% -50.6% 18% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$402
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses81 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)201 / 204
History coverage65d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 64¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $156 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $311 −$150 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $571 +$163 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $171 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $218 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $538 +$301 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $307 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $315 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$229 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $187 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$7 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $48 −$31 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$24 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $182 −$57 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $112 −$15 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $111 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $81 −$31 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$52 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $78 +$43 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $144 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $93 +$21 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $68 +$75 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 −$80 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$67 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$46 +64%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $165 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $156 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $157 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $175 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $154 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $285 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $155 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $153 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $156 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $143 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $152 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $156 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $153 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $276 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $149 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $190 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.66 · official $98.49 · 817 history records