Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f0c…a3b4 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-4%) realized −$36 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$18
crypto 19% +$14
other 17% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +54.1% +39.4% 67% 67% -11.4%
≤30d 6 +54.1% +39.4% 67% 67% -11.4%
≤90d 34 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 56% -13.0%
all 34 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 56% -13.0%
10% -15.7% 41% -21.4%
15% -23.9% 32% -29.0%
20% -31.4% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage84d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 17¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-43%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$6 +388%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 02 $476 +$87 +18%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $20 +$21 +105%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $10 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $10 −$8 -84%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? Mar 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 25 $14 +$8 +56%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Zhejiang Lions Mar 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$15 +153%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $56 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $50 6h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $15 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $7 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 28h
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $372 45d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 84¢ $42 45d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 40¢ $20 45d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 45d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 73¢ $81 46d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 47d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 100¢ $13 49d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $10 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 49d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 49d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 97¢ $145 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.26 · official $73.26 (match) · 89 history records