Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1F 0x1f09…a5f7 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
politics 39% −$11
tech 5% −$1
sports 4% −$12
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 126 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage116d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $339 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $355 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $163 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $272 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $315 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $276 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $345 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $155 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $130 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $355 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 25h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 25h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 30h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 30h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 41h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 378 history records