Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f09…ce7f other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 52L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$13
other 18% −$6
politics 13% −$9
sports 1% +$93
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.6% 11% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 57 +3.4% -6.5% 25% 18% -8.4%
all 70 +3.5% -6.3% 26% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 16% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 14% -17.9%
15% -23.5% 14% -25.9%
20% -31.0% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage603d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $153 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $339 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 +$11 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $17 +$8 +48%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $12 +$12 +105%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $13 +$14 +108%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $25 58m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $101 14h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $8 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 22d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $36 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.14 · official $101.14 (match) · 290 history records