Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1F 0x1f09…c12e sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+11%) realized +$138 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$4
sports 37% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 14 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 14 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
all 14 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 50% +0.1%
10% -29.0% 50% -9.4%
15% -35.9% 50% -18.2%
20% -42.1% 36% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$45 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $230 $236 +$6 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $123 +$88 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $87 +$50 +58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$4 -12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 +$102 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$45 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $127 +$59 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $62 +$32 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$52 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.96 · official $294.96 (match) · 30 history records