Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f06…5fdc other 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
other 24% −$3
politics 19% −$2
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$10
world 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage171d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $27 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $29 −$1 -2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 06 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 06 $149 −$1 -1%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $158 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter O Feb 20 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $27 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $27 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $34 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $34 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 21d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 21d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 92d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $36 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $36 92d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $41 92d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $40 93d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $39 93d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $39 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $28 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $28 94d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 94d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 94d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 94d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 94d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 95d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $37 95d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $37 95d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $34 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records