Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f05…6cf2 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$897 (-33%) realized −$812 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$666
14 days−$588
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$202
sports 41% −$324
crypto 7% +$45
world 4% −$110
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -79.6% -81.5% 10% 10% -54.0%
≤30d 37 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 30% -40.3%
≤90d 37 -41.1% -46.7% 30% 30% -40.3%
all 39 -37.7% -43.7% 33% 31% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 31% -39.4%
10% -49.0% 26% -45.2%
15% -54.0% 26% -50.5%
20% -58.5% 21% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$41 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$812
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage141d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 100¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 57¢ 28¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 12¢ $56 $44 −$13 (-23%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-78%)
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$356 +174%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$20 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$17 +166%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $78 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +61%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Mar 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 03 $20 +$9 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 49m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $113 55m
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 60¢ $98 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 42¢ $100 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $88 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 84¢ $560 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 30¢ $204 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.32 · official $886.71 · 94 history records