Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1F 0x1f03…cf25 other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%61W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$8
sports 38% −$2
tech 13% −$5
world 5% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 33% -45.7%
≤30d 10 -40.5% -46.1% 30% 30% -40.7%
≤90d 25 -36.5% -42.6% 32% 32% -50.5%
all 154 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 38% -13.7%
10% -15.9% 38% -21.9%
15% -24.0% 34% -29.5%
20% -31.4% 34% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses61 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)154 / 158
History coverage183d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 24 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 17 $2 +$2 +92%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Apr 17 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $20 −$4 -22%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 10 $1 $0 +31%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Feb 02 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$2 +170%
Will Páfos FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$3 +335%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $2 4d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $5 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 11¢ $2 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 43¢ $3 32d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $3 40d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 47d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 47d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 47d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 48¢ $3 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.86 · official $8.86 (match) · 233 history records