Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1F 0x1f00…e8db crypto 741 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$332 (-1%) realized −$548 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%280W / 459L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$34
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$118
economics 30% −$391
politics 27% −$63
other 4% +$45
sports 0% −$4
world 0% −$4
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -30.1% -36.7% 18% 18% -20.0%
≤30d 103 -29.2% -35.9% 26% 26% -21.7%
≤90d 403 -17.4% -25.3% 35% 34% -19.8%
all 739 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 35% -10.7%
10% -27.6% 32% -19.2%
15% -34.6% 27% -27.0%
20% -41.0% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$548
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses280 / 459
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)739 / 741
History coverage583d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 19? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) 100 Thieves 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8? No 24¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +461%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$7 +45%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$6 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -57%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$11 +152%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +117%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 −$12 -89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $24 −$3 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $13 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 22 $9 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 22 $7 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 22 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? May 22 $14 −$2 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$3 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 22 $21 −$7 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $5 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $3 17h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $13 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.13 · official $8.13 (match) · 2194 history records