Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1efc…1a6b crypto 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,379 (-6%) realized −$3,397 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%85W / 143L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$32
14 days−$118
30 days−$1,216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$349
crypto 19% −$1,573
other 4% −$1,546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +13.5% +2.7% 44% 44% -13.5%
≤30d 74 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 32% -41.7%
≤90d 74 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 32% -41.7%
all 228 -1.3% -10.7% 37% 36% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 36% -13.7%
10% -19.3% 35% -22.0%
15% -27.1% 34% -29.5%
20% -34.2% 32% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$192 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$3,397
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses85 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)228 / 230
History coverage116d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 38¢ 52¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+38%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 24¢ 14¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$15 +39%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $57 −$2 -4%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon Jun 22 $71 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$11 -74%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$20 +137%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $65 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$17 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$25 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$27 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -96%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $42 +$40 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$17 +120%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $7 +$17 +241%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $18 $0 -1%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$18 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Set 2 Winner: Svitolina vs Kalinskaya Jun 16 $14 +$5 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $15 +$30 +194%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $12 +$18 +151%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$12 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$17 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$30 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$73 +113%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $56 +$45 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$14 +107%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 +$31 +303%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 26m
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 38¢ $31 29m
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 39¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $33 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $17 42m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $54 52m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $57 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Nicolas Villalon 25¢ $20 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 77¢ $77 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 49¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 26¢ $5 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 27¢ $4 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 31¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 31¢ $50 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $65 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.40 · official $88.40 (match) · 442 history records